My BS meter blew a fuse when I saw a story regarding the severe shortage of drivers in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Rather than not having enough drivers, Minneapolis has an abundance of drivers.
The following headline and article caught my attention immediately:
MINNEAPOLIS – Minnesota is facing its largest truck driver shortage ever.
The Minnesota Trucking Association (MTA) says it’s short by more than 5,000 drivers.
MTA President John Hauslauden says the pipeline of younger people just hasn’t been filling in at the rate it used to.
Read More: Minnesota Facing Largest Truck Driver Shortage Ever | https://wjon.com/minnesota-facing-largest-truck-driver-shortage-ever/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
Supporting evidence in the article includes: drivers are important; diesel technicians are important, and fuel prices are high.
Somehow this adds up to no drivers.
In fact, looking at the charts below it is apparent that the oversupply of drivers and capacity is having a deflationary impact on spot rates.
The first chart below is of the Capacity Trend Score VAN. The CTSV52 measures capacity over the past 52 weeks; 1 is the loosest capacity and 100 is the tightest.
In other words, 57 means that Minneapolis is just about level set.
The next chart measures the Minneapolis market supply of capacity against the national average. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index measures the number of loads rejected by carriers as a percent of those tendered to the carriers. A higher percentage indicates that there is a lack of capacity or ability to accept the loads.
The numbers and trends in this chart would indicate that Minneapolis has a loosening market. In fact, it is looser than the national average. There is plenty of capacity in Minneapolis.
Fuel is a huge issue around the country, in particular for owner-operators, small fleets, and independents. But are high fuel prices causing a severe driver shortage? Not yet.
And, certainly not when your market is 80th of 134 markets in terms of diesel cost at the pump.
SONAR charts ranking markets by diesel cost and timeline comparison of daily retail diesel prices
Every single length of haul – from city routes to cross-country originating in Minneapolis has a rejection rate under the national average.
The exception? You guessed it, tweener loads. NOBODY LIKES TWEENERS!
If, in fact, there were a severe shortage of drivers in Minneapolis the rejections would be through the roof, the capacity trend would be at 100, and this would lead to what?
Shippers begging for loads to be hauled! Shippers would pay anything!
Here are three charts of outbound lanes originating in Minneapolis.
All are trending downward and are lower than the national average.
Peace and love