How can the Port of Los Angeles have 122 ships backed up if maritime volumes have dropped off a cliff?
Is this witchcraft, sorcery, or just bullshit?
None of the above.
What is being missed is that the charts below predicted the backlog of container ships you see at this moment.
Containerships carrying twenty-foot equivalent unit containers (better known as TEUs) take about six weeks these days to reach the U.S. West Coast from China. (The transit time is dropping slightly.) Add the time from booking to loading the container and then the transit time to the port of discharge and then loading the vessel, etc., etc., etc.
Did you really think that the drop in TEUs and bookings are felt immediately on the shores of the U.S.?
Think of the daily activity at the port as a deep space telescope. You are looking at events that happened months in the past. Consumer sentiment, manufacturing orders, TEU bookings, etc.
Is it possible that the shipping lines are dropping prices because demand is rising?
The chart above shows rate trends. Notice the timeline of the descending rates. Compare this to the first two charts.
So, we are looking at truckload volume trends in this last SONAR chart. 2022 is in blue.
It looks like a summer slump, even with 122 ships backlogged.
So, what happens as the backlog of ships dwindles? Make no mistake, it is dwindling.
What are you planning for? Are you ignoring the drop in demand, bookings, TEUs, and rates?
Peace and love