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    Home » Blog » Freight markets are at a crossroads
    Trucking

    Freight markets are at a crossroads

    Michael VincentBy Michael VincentJune 28, 2022No Comments2 Mins Read
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    All signs point to a July 4th freight bump!

    Truckload volumes are up!

    Rejections are up!

    Tender lead times are up!

    But, where do we go from here?

    Side-by-side chart comparisons within SONAR provide additional data visuals

    The SONAR chart above has truckload volumes compared to rejections on the left side and tender lead times on the right. All three indices are showing traditional seasonal movement at this time. 

    Shippers want to book more freight before the 4th of July – which is not only a holiday but is also the end of the second quarter. 

    The increase in tender lead times is the impact of the holiday being on a Monday and pushing pickups out an extra day. 

    The chart below has the Outbound Tender Volume Index, or OTVI, over the past five years. I placed a vertical line on June 27th. From this date forth you can choose from any one of four different trend lines and levels of freight.

    Seasonal comparisons of single indices within SONAR

    Which is the correct path? 

    Here are three hints. 

    On this dashboard, both production and orders are charted. Clicking on a gauge chart quickly charts out the selected index. In this case, both year-over-year Industrial Production and Orders of Durable Goods excluding defense have been trending downward.

    Macroeconomic indices are included in SONAR

    The next two charts are from the SONAR Container Atlas. Both charts have been filtered for import TEUs into the U.S. (any port, from any port in the world). 

    The first chart shows us that TEU volumes are down significantly and so far are not rebounding to the highs set in 2021. 

    Ocean TEU volumes all ports to all ports U.S.

    The second chart is displaying bookings. This represents dates on which bookings have been submitted to carriers. The trend here also continues to be negative.

    Ocean bookings all ports to all ports U.S.

    The key factors impacting U.S. freight markets are all pointing to further softening. Looking at SONAR’s real-time data, it would appear that the indices/charts will move forward in more of a purple or yellow fashion. Perhaps a trend downward towards those levels. 

    Peace and love

    Read more articles from Michael “The Dude” Vincent 

    July bump
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    Michael Vincent
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    34 years in this industry. I've learned a few things. There is always a way to screw up a shipment, always. Vacations are just remote work. Never pass up a bathroom. Conferences are marathons, not sprints. Your word and integrity are your greatest assets. Oh, and not everyone likes the Circle Jerks. Peace and Love.

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