All signs point to a July 4th freight bump!
Truckload volumes are up!
Rejections are up!
Tender lead times are up!
But, where do we go from here?
The SONAR chart above has truckload volumes compared to rejections on the left side and tender lead times on the right. All three indices are showing traditional seasonal movement at this time.
Shippers want to book more freight before the 4th of July – which is not only a holiday but is also the end of the second quarter.
The increase in tender lead times is the impact of the holiday being on a Monday and pushing pickups out an extra day.
The chart below has the Outbound Tender Volume Index, or OTVI, over the past five years. I placed a vertical line on June 27th. From this date forth you can choose from any one of four different trend lines and levels of freight.
Which is the correct path?
Here are three hints.
On this dashboard, both production and orders are charted. Clicking on a gauge chart quickly charts out the selected index. In this case, both year-over-year Industrial Production and Orders of Durable Goods excluding defense have been trending downward.
The next two charts are from the SONAR Container Atlas. Both charts have been filtered for import TEUs into the U.S. (any port, from any port in the world).
The first chart shows us that TEU volumes are down significantly and so far are not rebounding to the highs set in 2021.
The second chart is displaying bookings. This represents dates on which bookings have been submitted to carriers. The trend here also continues to be negative.
The key factors impacting U.S. freight markets are all pointing to further softening. Looking at SONAR’s real-time data, it would appear that the indices/charts will move forward in more of a purple or yellow fashion. Perhaps a trend downward towards those levels.
Peace and love