Will Truckload Volumes Flatline?
The SONAR chart below shows the Outbound Tender Volume Index, or OTVI, on the left side and the Outbound Tender Rejection Index, or OTRI, on the right.
OTVI measures the number of contracted loads offered to carriers. OTRI measures the number of those offered loads that are rejected.
Higher OTVI means more truckloads. Higher OTRI means more loads are moving to the spot market because contracted carriers cannot or are unwilling to cover the loads. The reasons are numerous and range from better-paying loads to not enough capacity.
Each of the charts are comparing the seasonality or year-over-year (y/y) comparison of the individual indices.
Discounting the orange line (2020), the area around where I have placed a vertical marker on each is the inflection point in the summer when we see rising volumes and tightening capacity.
We have not seen this yet. Will we? That is the million-dollar question.
Have volumes deflated to new levels?
Have capacity and pricing settled to a “stable” floor?
The SONAR heat map below does not suggest any impending change in direction.
This map shows the weekly change in load volumes by color. Red means volumes are decreasing in that particular market while blue means volumes are increasing. The elevation of the market indicates whether capacity is tightening or loosening.
Unless Tallahassee, Florida, and Elmira, New York are the new bellwethers of freight, well, let’s just say…
Peace and love